North Korea in the Age of the Trump Administration

Alternative title: How Did We Get Here?

          American diplomacy as we know it is coming to an end.  That isn't meant to sound ominous or scary, although to an extent, it is both of those things.  The era of strategic patience is out and fire and fury is in.  

        As the forty-fifth President sat in his makeshift briefing room at his namesake golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey on Tuesday, arms crossed like a toddler scorned and eyes distracted, flitting around the room, Trump warned of "fire, fury, and frankly power" against the DPRK if they make any more threats to the United States.  Trump's administration also kept the military option on the table for dealing with the rogue state.  

      

     What Trump doesn't seem to understand is that of course the DPRK will continue to provoke the United States.  North Korea has fired 18 missiles in 12 launches since February and its first ICBM in July.  Kim Jong-un has tested more missiles than both of his predecessors combined and the Washington Post reported earlier this week that Pyongyang has achieved what is believed to be its ultimate goal: a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside of an ICBM and effectively wipe out the entirety of the continental United States.  The North's nuclear proliferation has intensified as the totalitarian leader has become more worried that the American administration will attempt a regime change.  This puts the American government in a tough situation because as the leader of the free world,  it's the American responsibility to promote democracy and human rights, both of which are being violated in a grotesque way in North Korea.  On the other hand, attempting a regime change in the DPRK would be an extreme risk because of the unpredictable nature of the "hermit kingdom" and the then threat of all out, catastrophic nuclear war.  Administrations have been trying for decades, to no avail.  

• Bill Clinton had the agreed framework, which fizzled out when both sides effectively failed to meet their end of the deal.
• The George W. Bush administration tried a more hardline approach, making the DPRK a part of Bush's  infamous "axis of evil".  The first round of Six Party Talks (including the US, Russia, China, South Korea, Japan, and the DPRK) began in 2003, which, after several rounds, gained no traction.
• Although President Obama, like his predecessors, spoke harshly about Pyongyang and its nuclear ambitions, his administration's policy of "strategic patience" was seen by critics as a failure because of its ignorance of the DPRK's human rights violations against its people (Obama-era sanctions were also never fully implemented so North Korea did not adhere to them).

As of right now, there is no reason to believe that Trump will be anymore effective in his handling of the hostile state.  His top diplomat, Rex Tillerson, is inexperienced in diplomacy and the State Department, 8 months in, is still depleted, much to the chagrin of many career foreign service officers.

This won't be Trump's first test in foreign affairs but it may very well be his most consequential.  He needs to clean up the mess that he makes with his own bumbling rants that get aired live on every cable news network - and not through Twitter, and not through sending Kellyanne Conway and Sebastian Gorka to New Day to argue with Chris Cuomo for 30 minutes.  He needs to act like the President, be attentive during his briefings, ask questions, and want to be involved.  That shouldn't be too much to ask of the President of the United States.  So, next time reporters get the opportunities to ask him questions, ask him the hard questions.  Get detailed, and expect a detailed answer.  "North Korea best not make any more threats" is not an acceptable statement on behalf of POTUS, especially not five minutes out of a briefing about North Korea.  He's received far too many passes already - from putting Jared Kushner in charge of Middle East peace negotiations instead of experienced diplomats to pulling out of the Paris Climate Accord, putting the United States in company with Nicaragua and Syria.  The President and their staff should be able to give the press and the country detailed analysis of what they call the biggest threat facing their country.  So, expect it.  And hold them accountable.